astikhin | Финансовые потери от "нефтянных инвестиций". (Reply)

Пока Всемирный банк делает неутешительные прогнозы по ценам на сырье и материалы, уже примерно посчитали во сколько обошлись потери американских инвесторов от вложений в нефтегазовый сектор. Как уже упоминалось ранее, нефтяные компании активно занимали деньги под развитие проектов и этого факта никто особо не скрывал. Но за рамками разговоров как-то остались те инвесторы, которые эти деньги одалживали и вот появились примерные данные по потерям. Вот что пишут на этот счет в статье Cheap Oil Burns $390 Billion Hole in Investors' Pockets (в статье приводится еще много интересных вещей - в том числе и про "полезность дешевой нефти" для инвесторов):

Investors have a message for suffering U.S. oil drillers: We feel your pain.

They’ve pumped more than $1.4 trillion into the oil and gas industry the past five years as oil prices averaged more than $91 a barrel. The cash infusion helped push U.S. crude production to the highest in more than 30 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Now that oil prices have fallen below $46, any euphoria over cheaper energy will be tempered by losses that are starting to show up in investment funds, retirement accounts and bank balance sheets. The bear market has wiped out a total of $393 billion since June -- $353 billion from the shares of 76 companies in the Bloomberg Intelligence North America Exploration & Production index, and almost $40 billion from high-yield energy bonds, issued by many shale drillers, according to a Bloomberg index.

“The only thing people are noticing now is that gas prices are dropping,” said Sean Wheeler, the Houston-based co-chairman of the oil and gas industry team for law firm Latham & Watkins LLP. “People haven’t noticed yet that it’s also hitting their portfolios.”

Как видно из приведенной выше информации, деньги в нефтяную отрасль пришли достаточно приличные (порядка 1,4 триллионов долларов), что и обеспечило хорошие показатели нефтедобычи. Сейчас, правда, многие компании пересматривают свои инвестиционные планы, а кое-кто уже списывает в убыток "неудачные инвестиции" - "CNOOC Ltd eyes US$5-billion writedown at Nexen after announcing major investment cuts"

Calgary-based Nexen Energy ULC is reviewing its “organizational requirements” after its Chinese parent, CNOOC Ltd., announced deep investment cuts in response to the crash in oil prices.

CNOOC is also considering a US$5-billion writedown associated with the Canadian subsidiary, purchased barely two years ago for $15.1-billion, according to published reports. Sources close to the company confirmed Nexen is planning a major writedown, some of it associated with the long-struggling Long Lake oil sands project.

The developments represent more setbacks in Canada for the Chinese company, which paid a rich price for Nexen only to run into difficulties with Long Lake, as well as facing high costs, lack of export pipelines that depressed bitumen prices and a different business culture.

На фоне положения дел на нефтегазовом рынке ресурсодобывающие страны начинают просчитывать свои риски и прикидывать планы на будущее. Вот, к примеру, недавно канадцы выпустили отчет "How Sustainable is Canadian Oil & Gas at $50 Oil?" в котором рассматривают текущее положение дел и делают прогнозы (основные выводы даны ниже):

The Canadian oil & gas industry, as in every other country in the world, has been shaken by the continuing sharp decline in global oil prices. Market capitalization values for nearly all oil and gas companies have fallen dramatically as benchmark prices have tumbled; the widely accepted benchmark spot oil price in North America, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell from over $90 in September 2014 to around US$50 in January 2015.

Key Conclusions of this CanOils Study:

Less than 20% of leading Canadian oil and gas companies will be able to sustain their operations long-term in a prolonged period of low oil prices.
In the immediate future however, expect minimal change to existing operations; many companies should continue to generate positive cash flow even at US$50 oil, but this is only acceptable in the very short-term.
A significant number of companies with high-debt ratios are particularly vulnerable right now.
Natural gas-weighted producers’ profits should be protected from the falling oil price, assuming gas prices hold up.
Expect to see more M&A activity as companies with the most liquidity upgrade their portfolios.